Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 25 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: WN 1900 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 1900 HOU 06:05 → BWI 10:27 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3068 IAH 16:21 → BWI 20:36 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1900 Southwest	HOU 06:05	BWI 10:27	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 4685 Southwest	HOU 08:00	BWI 12:13	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 512 United Flight history →	IAH 07:37	DCA 11:50	6%	2%	0.5%	95%
UA 1549 United Flight history →	IAH 07:25	IAD 11:33	6%	2%	0.6%	92%
WN 4229 Southwest	HOU 08:50	DCA 12:57	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 1720 United Flight history →	IAH 12:16	BWI 16:30	7%	2%	0.5%	81%
WN 840 Southwest	HOU 11:20	BWI 15:41	8%	1%	0.5%	no record
WN 1902 Southwest	HOU 16:09	BWI 20:33	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
OH 5463 PSA	IAH 07:00	DCA 11:23	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
UA 654 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	DCA 16:03	10%	3%	0.5%	75%
UA 2366 United Flight history →	IAH 12:13	IAD 16:30	11%	2%	0.6%	82%
UA 2224 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	DCA 23:59	11%	3%	0.6%	70%
OH 5496 PSA	IAH 11:37	DCA 15:55	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
UA 1178 United	IAH 14:53	IAD 19:15	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 625 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	DCA 18:31	13%	4%	0.5%	69%
UA 592 United	IAH 16:53	BWI 21:10	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 1911 Southwest	HOU 14:46	DCA 18:51	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2388 United Flight history →	IAH 16:35	IAD 20:46	13%	3%	0.6%	70%
UA 1968 United	IAH 20:22	IAD 00:42	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 235 United	IAH 16:50	DCA 21:05	14%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1373 United Flight history →	IAH 18:32	IAD 22:43	14%	3%	0.6%	73%
UA 1627 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DCA 22:15	14%	4%	0.6%	66%
OH 5589 PSA	IAH 16:42	DCA 20:59	16%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 4286 Southwest	HOU 18:21	DCA 22:28	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 3068 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 16:21	BWI 20:36	24%	6%	0.8%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON