Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


DL 4645 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 12:33	DTW 14:18	9%	3%	0.8%	71%
DL 4643 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 17:09	DTW 18:52	13%	3%	0.8%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	HPN 06:00 → ORD 07:41AA 3751 · flown by Envoy	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 10:26 → DTW 12:47AA 3977 · flown by Envoy	6h 47m	100%	92%
American Details →	HPN 06:30 → DCA 07:50AA 5678 · flown by PSA	3h 14m Washington	DCA 11:04 → DTW 13:01AA 4616 · flown by Republic	6h 31m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	HPN 06:29 → ATL 08:46DL 2379	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 27m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:49 → ATL 15:10DL 2973	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 18:11 → DTW 20:13DL 1478	7h 24m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	HPN 15:05 → MSP 16:52DL 4693 · flown by Endeavor	2h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 19:46 → DTW 22:32DL 1484	7h 27m	97%	85%
American Details →	HPN 12:00 → ORD 13:38AA 3812 · flown by Envoy	1h 28m Chicago	ORD 15:06 → DTW 17:41AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	5h 41m	94%	85%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:13 → ATL 20:35DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → DTW 00:59 +1DL 2940	6h 46m	97%	84%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 07m Charlotte	CLT 12:04 → DTW 13:53AA 1683	5h 58m	94%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	HPN 17:26 → DCA 18:58AA 5401 · flown by PSA	1h 02m Washington	DCA 20:00 → DTW 21:44AA 5597 · flown by PSA	4h 18m	75%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON