Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 24%, against 8% on a calm day. Safest: B6 2695 at 08:28, 16%.

Safest bet that day B6 2695 HPN 08:28 → MCO 11:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 595 HPN 14:44 → MCO 17:29 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Weather 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 2695 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 08:28	MCO 11:20	16%	6%	1.2%	89%
B6 195 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 20:27	MCO 23:22	25%	13%	2.2%	68%
B6 595 JetBlue Flight history →	HPN 14:44	MCO 17:29	31%	15%	1.8%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON