Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:36 am at White Plains)

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 4693 at 15:06, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 4693 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HPN 15:06	MSP 16:54	13%	4%	0.8%	66%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind White Plains). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 06:00 → ATL 08:19DL 2379	1h 36m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → MSP 11:30DL 2090	6h 30m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:50 → ATL 15:10DL 2973	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 17:31 → MSP 19:06DL 2654	7h 16m	99%	84%
American Details →	HPN 12:00 → ORD 13:38AA 3812 · flown by Envoy	2h 22m Chicago	ORD 16:00 → MSP 17:31AA 4746 · flown by Republic	6h 31m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	HPN 18:14 → ATL 20:37DL 5013 · flown by Endeavor	2h 23m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → MSP 00:39 +1DL 1310	7h 25m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	HPN 12:34 → DTW 14:20DL 4645 · flown by Endeavor	2h 00m Detroit	DTW 16:20 → MSP 17:12DL 2203	5h 38m	95%	79%
American Details →	HPN 07:10 → ORD 08:51AA 3496 · flown by Envoy	3h 15m Chicago	ORD 12:06 → MSP 13:48AA 3131	7h 38m	99%	79%
American Details →	HPN 07:55 → CLT 09:57AA 5403 · flown by PSA	2h 48m Charlotte	CLT 12:45 → MSP 14:39AA 1671	7h 44m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	HPN 17:10 → DTW 18:54DL 4643 · flown by Endeavor	1h 33m Detroit	DTW 20:27 → MSP 21:16DL 2981	5h 06m	89%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON