Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 3751 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 10–16%.

Safest bet that day AA 3751 HPN 06:00 → ORD 07:41 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 4112 HPN 17:20 → ORD 18:47 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3751 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 06:00	ORD 07:41	3%	2%	0.5%	94%
AA 3496 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 07:10	ORD 08:51	5%	3%	0.4%	89%
AA 3812 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 12:00	ORD 13:38	10%	2%	0.8%	80%
AA 3808 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 16:39	ORD 18:29	10%	3%	0.8%	72%
AA 4112 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HPN 17:20	ORD 18:47	16%	3%	0.8%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON