Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:35 am at White Plains); 1 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 30% (calm day: 13%). Best bet: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:50, 76% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach San Juan on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	HPN 12:50 → ATL 15:10DL 2973	3h 35m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → SJU 22:30DL 1861	9h 40m	99%	76%
JetBlue Details →	HPN 14:44 → MCO 17:29B6 595	1h 36m Orlando	MCO 19:05 → SJU 22:16B6 433	7h 32m	83%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON