Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2556 HSV 05:30 → ATL 07:31 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 99% on time Riskiest 9E 5231 HSV 15:02 → ATL 17:12 · 12% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2556 Delta Flight history →	HSV 05:30	ATL 07:31	5%	2%	0.6%	99%
DL 3036 Delta Flight history →	HSV 08:50	ATL 10:50	6%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1708 Delta Flight history →	HSV 09:50	ATL 11:49	6%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 3026 Delta Flight history →	HSV 16:20	ATL 18:25	8%	2%	0.6%	82%
DL 3065 Delta	HSV 18:21	ATL 20:27	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3009 Delta Flight history →	HSV 07:12	ATL 09:17	9%	2%	0.6%	91%
DL 2182 Delta Flight history →	HSV 12:31	ATL 14:34	10%	2%	0.7%	85%
9E 5231 Endeavor	HSV 15:02	ATL 17:12	12%	3%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON