Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5470 HSV 08:42 → CLT 11:08 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5443 HSV 13:29 → CLT 15:58 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5470 PSA	HSV 08:42	CLT 11:08	9%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5393 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 08:41	CLT 10:58	9%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 5443 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 13:29	CLT 15:58	12%	3%	0.8%	81%
AA 5810 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 11:16	CLT 13:57	23%	3%	1.4%	77%
AA 5806 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 14:37	CLT 17:22	23%	7%	1.4%	77%
AA 5811 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 19:02	CLT 21:47	29%	11%	3.9%	71%
AA 5807 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	HSV 16:34	CLT 19:20	37%	17%	0.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON