Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YX 4476 HSV 06:13 → DCA 09:07 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5143 HSV 13:04 → DCA 16:10 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4476 Republic	HSV 06:13	DCA 09:07	6%	1%	0.6%	no record
AA 3997 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 09:56	DCA 12:59	8%	2%	0.7%	84%
AA 5442 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 06:01	DCA 09:11	10%	3%	0.7%	79%
MQ 4249 Envoy	HSV 18:08	DCA 21:14	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
OH 5143 PSA	HSV 13:04	DCA 16:10	14%	4%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON