Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 8–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3476 HSV 09:32 → DFW 11:30 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 5383 HSV 14:21 → DFW 16:24 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3476 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	HSV 09:32	DFW 11:30	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
MQ 3634 Envoy	HSV 07:07	DFW 09:12	10%	2%	0.7%	no record
OH 5141 PSA	HSV 05:01	DFW 07:11	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3504 Envoy	HSV 16:22	DFW 18:21	15%	2%	0.7%	no record
OO 6302 SkyWest	HSV 12:13	DFW 14:17	16%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 5383 American flown by PSA Flight history →	HSV 14:21	DFW 16:24	16%	5%	0.8%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON