Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 5382 HSV 06:02 → DTW 08:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 5021 HSV 14:04 → DTW 16:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5382 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HSV 06:02	DTW 08:57	6%	3%	0.7%	88%
9E 4929 Endeavor	HSV 13:49	DTW 16:43	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
DL 5021 Delta flown by Endeavor Flight history →	HSV 14:04	DTW 16:59	10%	2%	0.7%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON