Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 10–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6464 HSV 07:29 → ORD 09:51 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 4469 HSV 13:37 → ORD 15:39 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6464 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HSV 07:29	ORD 09:51	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
G7 4474 GoJet	HSV 07:22	ORD 09:32	12%	3%	0.9%	no record
AA 6352 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	HSV 12:06	ORD 14:29	13%	5%	0.6%	75%
MQ 4132 Envoy	HSV 10:59	ORD 13:15	13%	2%	0.7%	no record
MQ 3381 Envoy	HSV 06:01	ORD 07:48	15%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 4469 United flown by GoJet Flight history →	HSV 13:37	ORD 15:39	16%	3%	0.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON