tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Albuquerque on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2070 United IAD 17:36 ABQ 19:51 15% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Albuquerque on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Albuquerque is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395 3h 07m Denver DEN 21:10 → ABQ 22:54UA 5880 · flown by SkyWest 8h 58m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 15m San Francisco SFO 18:42 → ABQ 22:26UA 5289 · flown by SkyWest 11h 46m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 30m Denver DEN 13:35 → ABQ 15:04UA 1594 6h 51m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 14:23 → ABQ 15:31DL 1109 7h 10m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 22m Atlanta ATL 09:05 → ABQ 10:12DL 1004 6h 12m 96% 87%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:47 → ABQ 11:41AA 3586 · flown by Envoy 7h 27m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 20:47 → ABQ 22:02DL 1531 9h 00m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 3h 18m San Francisco SFO 12:30 → ABQ 16:06UA 1597 11h 36m 97% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON