tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: United via Denver, leaving 14:35, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 4 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 38m Denver DEN 19:07 → ANC 22:56UA 280 12h 21m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 13:15 → ORD 14:29UA 2331 1h 41m Chicago ORD 16:10 → ANC 19:54UA 841 10h 39m 95% 83%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 09:33 → SEA 12:06AS 375 2h 23m Seattle SEA 14:29 → ANC 17:13AS 1436 11h 40m 100% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:00 → SEA 09:45DL 1015 3h 55m Seattle SEA 13:40 → ANC 16:25DL 928 13h 25m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 53m Minneapolis MSP 14:28 → ANC 17:28DL 411 9h 53m 90% 76%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 18:14 → SEA 21:09AS 737 1h 46m Seattle SEA 22:55 → ANC 01:40 +1AS 205 11h 26m 95% 75%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 06:03 → SEA 08:48AS 409 3h 05m Seattle SEA 11:53 → ANC 14:36AS 1333 12h 33m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → IAD 09:33 → SEA 12:06AS 375 51m Seattle SEA 12:57 → ANC 15:47AS 1434 10h 14m 68% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON