Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2127 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 2127 IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 4409 IAD 20:53 → ATL 22:58 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2127 Delta Flight history →	IAD 06:00	ATL 07:43	6%	2%	0.7%	90%
DL 1324 Delta Flight history →	IAD 10:21	ATL 12:05	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
DL 1444 Delta Flight history →	IAD 12:37	ATL 14:28	7%	2%	0.6%	83%
UA 2739 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	ATL 10:14	8%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 2135 Delta Flight history →	IAD 15:02	ATL 16:53	8%	2%	0.6%	73%
DL 3080 Delta Flight history →	IAD 08:27	ATL 10:18	8%	2%	0.7%	83%
UA 471 United Flight history →	IAD 12:35	ATL 14:34	9%	3%	0.5%	86%
DL 1695 Delta Flight history →	IAD 17:46	ATL 19:54	9%	2%	0.6%	74%
UA 1357 United	IAD 22:22	ATL 00:32	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 4707 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 09:51	ATL 11:55	19%	8%	0.7%	71%
F9 4409 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 20:53	ATL 22:58	20%	8%	0.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON