Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 444 IAD 22:25 → BDL 23:59 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest YV 4029 IAD 12:45 → BDL 14:18 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


UA 444 United Flight history →	IAD 22:25	BDL 23:59	10%	2%	0.2%	83%
YX 3610 Republic	IAD 17:24	BDL 19:00	11%	2%	0.2%	no record
YV 4029 Mesa	IAD 12:45	BDL 14:18	11%	3%	0.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON