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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Frontier via Las Vegas, leaving 06:01, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
FrontierDetails → IAD 06:01 → LAS 08:15F9 4277 2h 57m Las Vegas LAS 11:12 → BUR 12:41F9 4107 9h 40m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 24m San Francisco SFO 18:51 → BUR 20:23UA 2001 10h 43m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:20 → BUR 11:58AA 1208 8h 44m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 51m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 90% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 36m Atlanta ATL 11:19 → BUR 12:55DL 483 9h 55m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 59m Denver DEN 19:28 → BUR 20:58UA 2411 9h 23m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147 2h 31m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 9h 42m 99% 83%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 09:19 → SEA 11:46AS 375 2h 06m Seattle SEA 13:52 → BUR 16:19AS 529 10h 00m 100% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON