tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1709 United Flight history → IAD 12:45 CLE 14:06 6% 2% 0.5% 84%
UA 2131 United Flight history → IAD 22:15 CLE 23:44 6% 2% 0.5% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Cleveland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 06m Minneapolis MSP 09:59 → CLE 13:25DL 2764 7h 25m 97% 92%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 08m Chicago ORD 12:44 → CLE 15:20UA 1878 7h 05m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → CLE 11:32DL 2978 5h 32m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 13:36 → CLE 15:20DL 2545 6h 53m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:35 → MSP 13:35DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 1h 56m Minneapolis MSP 15:31 → CLE 18:32DL 1118 6h 57m 98% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:31 → ORD 11:53UA 1252 2h 27m Chicago ORD 14:20 → CLE 16:54UA 1502 6h 23m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 16:51 → CLE 18:41DL 1350 6h 04m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → CLE 00:49 +1DL 1320 7h 03m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON