Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5151 IAD 10:15 → CLT 11:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5447 IAD 18:11 → CLT 19:39 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5151 PSA	IAD 10:15	CLT 11:40	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3001 American	IAD 06:12	CLT 07:44	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
OH 5154 PSA	IAD 12:22	CLT 13:45	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 1896 American	IAD 07:55	CLT 09:27	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5447 American flown by PSA Flight history →	IAD 18:11	CLT 19:39	12%	3%	0.7%	73%
UA 6239 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:43	CLT 14:12	22%	7%	1.4%	78%
UA 6209 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:20	CLT 19:02	27%	9%	5.4%	73%
UA 6234 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:24	CLT 23:59	32%	9%	3.0%	68%
UA 4063 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:15	CLT 09:45	38%	2%	0.0%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON