Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3646 IAD 22:32 → CMH 00:20 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 454 IAD 12:31 → CMH 13:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 6% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3646 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 22:32	CMH 00:20	5%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 454 United	IAD 12:31	CMH 13:56	7%	3%	0.4%	no record
UA 4076 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:25	CMH 09:49	11%	4%	0.0%	89%
UA 4588 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 17:25	CMH 18:57	17%	10%	6.5%	83%
UA 4420 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:45	CMH 14:11	22%	8%	2.7%	78%
UA 4414 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:15	CMH 23:42	34%	17%	6.5%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON