Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 5–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1865 IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 599 IAD 17:41 → DEN 19:45 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1865 United Flight history →	IAD 10:13	DEN 12:05	5%	2%	0.5%	93%
UA 1587 United Flight history →	IAD 12:48	DEN 14:42	6%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 797 United	IAD 08:09	DEN 09:51	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1126 United Flight history →	IAD 14:35	DEN 16:29	8%	3%	0.5%	82%
UA 495 United Flight history →	IAD 22:23	DEN 00:30	8%	2%	0.5%	84%
UA 395 United Flight history →	IAD 15:56	DEN 18:03	10%	3%	0.5%	79%
UA 599 United Flight history →	IAD 17:41	DEN 19:45	12%	3%	0.5%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON