Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 6–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 2617 IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest F9 4559 IAD 16:26 → DFW 18:39 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2617 American Flight history →	IAD 06:14	DFW 08:35	6%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 1564 United Flight history →	IAD 12:41	DFW 15:05	10%	3%	0.5%	79%
UA 2116 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	DFW 20:25	13%	3%	0.5%	72%
AA 524 American Flight history →	IAD 16:50	DFW 18:57	14%	3%	0.6%	83%
F9 4559 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 16:26	DFW 18:39	14%	5%	0.7%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON