Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 4349 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 13:05	GSO 14:32	12%	2%	0.8%	81%
UA 4849 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 22:27	GSO 23:47	13%	3%	0.8%	80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greensboro on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 15:45 → GSO 17:29DL 5512 · flown by Endeavor	6h 19m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → GSO 11:34DL 3052	5h 34m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 14:15 → GSO 15:30DL 2539	7h 03m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:15 → ATL 10:09DL 1354	2h 40m Atlanta	ATL 12:49 → GSO 14:04DL 3060	5h 49m	97%	89%
United Details →	IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:02UA 1498	2h 24m Newark	EWR 16:26 → GSO 18:06UA 3576 · flown by Republic	5h 31m	97%	87%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:27 → GSO 13:05AA 3886 · flown by Envoy	6h 51m	94%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:26 → DTW 19:15DL 1787	1h 20m Detroit	DTW 20:35 → GSO 22:17DL 5407 · flown by Endeavor	4h 51m	92%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → GSO 23:59DL 3005	6h 13m	97%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON