Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 6–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1747 IAD 06:09 → IAH 08:38 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2217 IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1747 United	IAD 06:09	IAH 08:38	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 3920 United	IAD 09:12	IAH 11:15	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAD 08:40	IAH 10:59	9%	2%	0.5%	89%
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAD 12:50	IAH 15:11	10%	2%	0.5%	84%
UA 2607 United	IAD 15:01	IAH 17:30	10%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1463 United Flight history →	IAD 22:19	IAH 00:21	13%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 2217 United Flight history →	IAD 17:59	IAH 20:25	13%	3%	0.5%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON