Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 5–6% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3561 IAD 08:24 → IND 10:13 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 3543 IAD 12:39 → IND 14:24 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 5% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3561 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 08:24	IND 10:13	5%	1%	0.6%	91%
UA 3543 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 12:39	IND 14:24	6%	2%	0.6%	84%
UA 3997 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:16	IND 23:59	28%	9%	0.0%	72%
UA 4021 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:16	IND 23:59	33%	17%	3.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON