Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 2084 United Flight history →	IAD 08:40	JAX 10:50	9%	3%	3.2%	90%
UA 293 United Flight history →	IAD 17:53	JAX 20:08	14%	5%	5.3%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884	2h 15m Detroit	DTW 15:02 → JAX 17:27DL 2994	6h 17m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 10:48 → JAX 12:00DL 2923	6h 00m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 22:54 → JAX 00:09 +1DL 2276	6h 23m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	54m Detroit	DTW 08:29 → JAX 10:49DL 2333	4h 49m	91%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 12:37 → JAX 13:45DL 3024	5h 18m	99%	79%
United Details →	IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396	3h 06m Newark	EWR 13:01 → JAX 15:42UA 2678	7h 13m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 13:57 → JAX 15:09DL 2990	4h 48m	98%	78%
United Details →	IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524	1h 11m Houston	IAH 12:10 → JAX 15:37UA 4048 · flown by Mesa	6h 57m	94%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON