Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2156 IAD 13:00 → LAS 15:09 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 4277 IAD 06:01 → LAS 08:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2156 United Flight history →	IAD 13:00	LAS 15:09	6%	3%	0.5%	91%
UA 1323 United Flight history →	IAD 08:53	LAS 10:48	7%	2%	0.5%	95%
UA 2209 United	IAD 18:22	LAS 20:17	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
F9 4277 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 06:01	LAS 08:15	15%	5%	0.6%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324	1h 10m Atlanta	ATL 13:15 → LAS 14:18DL 549	6h 57m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Detroit	DTW 08:59 → LAS 10:12DL 334	7h 12m	94%	87%
United Details →	IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587	1h 12m Denver	DEN 15:54 → LAS 16:56UA 2424	7h 08m	96%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON