Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 7–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1689 IAD 13:10 → LAX 15:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 2276 IAD 17:48 → LAX 20:21 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1689 United Flight history →	IAD 13:10	LAX 15:42	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
UA 1734 United Flight history →	IAD 08:25	LAX 11:02	7%	2%	0.6%	86%
UA 2011 United	IAD 06:58	LAX 09:39	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 657 United	IAD 09:31	LAX 12:09	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 684 United Flight history →	IAD 15:15	LAX 17:47	9%	3%	0.6%	89%
UA 2276 United Flight history →	IAD 17:48	LAX 20:21	12%	3%	0.6%	71%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 10m	96%	90%
United Details →	IAD 12:45 → CLE 14:06UA 1709	1h 36m Cleveland	CLE 15:42 → LAX 17:38UA 679	7h 53m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:30 → LAX 12:27DL 829	8h 12m	98%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON