tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 7–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 3505 Republic IAD 12:52 MCI 14:32 7% 2% 0.6% no record
UA 1165 United IAD 18:04 MCI 19:57 11% 4% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 11:10 → DTW 12:47DL 2884 3h 07m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 6h 44m 100% 92%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 09m Minneapolis MSP 10:02 → MCI 11:40DL 1349 6h 40m 97% 91%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 7h 13m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 04m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 7h 05m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 02m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 7h 09m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 35m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 7h 09m 98% 87%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:31 → MCI 12:17AA 1376 7h 03m 98% 87%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON