Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, UA 1073 at 08:45, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


UA 1073 United Flight history →	IAD 08:45	MIA 11:35	7%	2%	0.6%	87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 09:31 → MIA 11:33DL 2836	5h 33m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 47m Detroit	DTW 09:22 → MIA 12:28DL 1468	6h 28m	96%	89%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 09:03 → MIA 13:40DL 793	7h 40m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 13:32 → MIA 15:26DL 1323	6h 59m	99%	84%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 10:20 → MIA 14:29AA 1454	8h 15m	98%	83%
United Details →	IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396	1h 36m Newark	EWR 11:31 → MIA 14:38UA 2295	6h 09m	97%	83%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 22:53 → MIA 00:55 +1DL 1589	7h 09m	98%	81%
United Details →	IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775	57m Chicago	ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620	6h 42m	94%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON