tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, UA 251 at 18:04, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 251 United Flight history → IAD 18:04 MSY 19:40 13% 4% 0.6% 86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542 6h 37m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396 2h 38m Newark EWR 12:33 → MSY 14:44UA 2468 7h 15m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157 6h 50m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 08m Denver DEN 13:13 → MSY 16:57UA 250 7h 44m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 3h 18m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 6h 36m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 1h 19m Chicago ORD 10:55 → MSY 13:13UA 1532 5h 58m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 05m Detroit DTW 08:40 → MSY 10:14DL 2790 5h 14m 94% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 17:51 → MSY 18:27DL 678 6h 50m 99% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON