Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day


UA 4236 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:15	MYR 09:59	22%	5%	0.0%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Myrtle Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 08:16 → ATL 10:08DL 1354	1h 40m Atlanta	ATL 11:48 → MYR 13:00DL 3182	4h 44m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 09:30 → MYR 10:47DL 3047	4h 47m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → MYR 10:39DL 1145	4h 39m	94%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → MYR 23:55DL 3074	6h 09m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444	3h 20m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MYR 19:07DL 1093	6h 30m	99%	84%
United Details →	IAD 12:35 → EWR 14:02UA 1498	1h 53m Newark	EWR 15:55 → MYR 18:03UA 3589 · flown by Republic	5h 28m	96%	84%
American Details →	IAD 18:11 → CLT 19:39AA 5447 · flown by PSA	50m Charlotte	CLT 20:29 → MYR 21:41AA 1085	3h 30m	88%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON