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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Ontario on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 11:09 → ONT 12:12DL 1173 7h 57m 96% 91%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:24 → ONT 13:48AA 2635 10h 34m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 39m San Francisco SFO 19:06 → ONT 20:45UA 2478 11h 05m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 2h 02m Atlanta ATL 18:55 → ONT 20:41DL 2891 8h 39m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 51m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 9h 07m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → IAD 16:50 → DFW 18:57AA 524 2h 28m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:25 → ONT 22:52AA 1695 9h 02m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50UA 2497 1h 28m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 8h 09m 92% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON