Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6: UA 2691 at 06:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 6–16%.

Safest bet that day UA 2691 IAD 06:04 → ORD 07:23 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2497 IAD 17:42 → ORD 18:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 48% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2691 United	IAD 06:04	ORD 07:23	5%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1252 United Flight history →	IAD 10:31	ORD 11:53	5%	2%	0.5%	92%
UA 1775 United Flight history →	IAD 08:15	ORD 09:36	6%	3%	0.5%	84%
UA 3932 United	IAD 23:26	ORD 00:44	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2331 United Flight history →	IAD 13:15	ORD 14:29	9%	3%	0.5%	81%
UA 2158 United	IAD 15:46	ORD 16:57	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 421 United	IAD 22:50	ORD 23:53	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2497 United Flight history →	IAD 17:42	ORD 18:50	16%	4%	0.5%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON