tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Phoenix on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 709 United Flight history → IAD 08:47 PHX 10:27 11% 2% 0.5% 99%
UA 1938 United Flight history → IAD 17:50 PHX 19:46 12% 3% 0.5% 82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Phoenix on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:25 → MSP 09:16DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 16m Minneapolis MSP 11:32 → PHX 12:46DL 2274 8h 21m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:51 → SFO 17:38UA 2862 3h 19m San Francisco SFO 20:57 → PHX 23:08UA 1653 11h 17m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 3h 30m Denver DEN 15:35 → PHX 16:35UA 1254 9h 22m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 11:03 → PHX 11:59DL 687 8h 59m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → PHX 12:12DL 1431 7h 57m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → PHX 11:24AA 2905 8h 10m 98% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 12m Atlanta ATL 13:30 → PHX 14:18DL 366 8h 51m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396 3h 08m Newark EWR 13:03 → PHX 15:06UA 370 9h 37m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON