Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 7–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 3540 IAD 22:30 → PIT 23:36 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest YX 3517 IAD 17:18 → PIT 18:33 · 10% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 3540 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 22:30	PIT 23:36	7%	2%	0.6%	80%
G7 4475 GoJet	IAD 13:03	PIT 14:10	9%	2%	0.2%	no record
YX 3517 Republic	IAD 17:18	PIT 18:33	10%	2%	0.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON