Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:51 pm at Dulles); 2 already left

Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, G7 4521 at 17:23, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


G7 4521 GoJet	IAD 17:23	PVD 18:53	15%	4%	0.2%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Providence on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 17:05 → DTW 18:38DL 1787	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 21:45 → PVD 23:38DL 5485 · flown by Endeavor	6h 33m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 21:27 → PVD 23:57DL 2064	6h 11m	92%	70%
Delta Details →	IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135	47m Atlanta	ATL 17:40 → PVD 20:09DL 2659	5h 07m	83%	64%
American Details →	IAD 18:27 → CLT 19:53AA 5447 · flown by PSA	1h 30m Charlotte	CLT 21:23 → PVD 23:29AA 2318	5h 02m	91%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON