Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 6:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 4–7% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 3548 IAD 08:23 → PWM 10:26 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest YX 3538 IAD 17:37 → PWM 19:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 5% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 4% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 3548 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 08:23	PWM 10:26	4%	2%	0.6%	97%
YX 3709 Republic	IAD 12:51	PWM 15:01	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 3459 United flown by Republic Flight history →	IAD 22:04	PWM 00:04	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
YX 3538 Republic	IAD 17:37	PWM 19:34	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 4487 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 08:20	PWM 10:04	11%	0%	10.0%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON