Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2163 IAD 12:40 → SAN 15:03 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest UA 2054 IAD 18:00 → SAN 20:23 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2163 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SAN 15:03	13%	4%	0.6%	85%
AS 201 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 19:53	SAN 22:17	16%	3%	0.7%	74%
UA 2054 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	SAN 20:23	16%	4%	0.7%	83%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	58m Minneapolis	MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121	7h 38m	93%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 16m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	7h 53m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080	1h 32m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	7h 41m	96%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON