tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: American via DFW, leaving 16:50, is the safest bet: 63% chance of reaching San Antonio on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1789 United Flight history → IAD 08:25 SAT 10:59 7% 2% 0.5% 94%
UA 1869 United Flight history → IAD 17:45 SAT 20:22 9% 4% 0.5% 81%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 3h 48m Houston IAH 14:47 → SAT 16:08UA 2030 8h 28m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 39m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 7h 42m 97% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 54m Chicago ORD 13:30 → SAT 16:29UA 2844 9h 14m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 1h 07m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 49m 95% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:29 → EWR 09:55UA 2396 2h 25m Newark EWR 12:20 → SAT 15:21UA 515 7h 52m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 7h 43m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 3h 53m Atlanta ATL 15:58 → SAT 17:29DL 1465 8h 08m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587 2h 57m Denver DEN 17:39 → SAT 20:54UA 2819 9h 06m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON