Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1824 IAD 13:08 → SEA 16:01 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1574 IAD 07:43 → SEA 09:44 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1824 United	IAD 13:08	SEA 16:01	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1015 Delta Flight history →	IAD 07:00	SEA 09:45	9%	3%	0.7%	79%
AS 375 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 09:19	SEA 11:46	11%	2%	0.6%	90%
AS 737 Alaska Flight history →	IAD 18:14	SEA 21:09	15%	3%	0.6%	58%
UA 1128 United	IAD 17:37	SEA 20:08	16%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 1574 Alaska	IAD 07:43	SEA 09:44	19%	2%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON