Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 796 IAD 16:09 → SFO 19:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 1757 IAD 17:55 → SFO 20:37 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 796 United Flight history →	IAD 16:09	SFO 19:05	7%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 2862 United Flight history →	IAD 14:51	SFO 17:38	7%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 1147 United Flight history →	IAD 08:35	SFO 11:19	8%	2%	0.5%	86%
UA 1095 United Flight history →	IAD 06:30	SFO 09:12	8%	2%	0.6%	88%
UA 1773 United	IAD 09:32	SFO 12:05	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1434 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	SFO 15:27	10%	2%	0.5%	79%
UA 2832 United	IAD 18:29	SFO 21:18	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1757 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SFO 20:37	14%	3%	0.6%	60%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	1h 20m Denver	DEN 13:25 → SFO 15:09UA 1812	7h 56m	97%	84%
United Details →	IAD 12:50 → BNA 13:49UA 213	1h 08m Nashville	BNA 14:57 → SFO 18:02UA 581	8h 12m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 06m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:00 → SFO 12:03DL 902	7h 48m	96%	83%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON