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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432 1h 46m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 98% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 8h 30m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → MSP 07:53DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest 2h 12m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → SJC 12:01DL 2383 9h 01m 97% 88%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 38m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:13 → SJC 13:57AA 2834 10h 43m 99% 88%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 3h 01m Denver DEN 19:30 → SJC 21:09UA 2745 9h 34m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933 8h 03m 92% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAD 16:50 → DFW 18:57AA 524 1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:20 → SJC 22:13AA 364 8h 23m 93% 78%
AlaskaDetails → IAD 09:19 → SEA 11:46AS 375 2h 05m Seattle SEA 13:51 → SJC 16:00AS 657 9h 41m 100% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON