tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 11:35, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
DL 432 Delta Flight history → IAD 07:15 SLC 09:54 6% 2% 0.6% 85%
UA 2410 United Flight history → IAD 17:50 SLC 20:46 13% 3% 0.5% 80%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 2h 27m Atlanta ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387 8h 10m 98% 91%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:56 → DEN 18:03UA 395 3h 02m Denver DEN 21:05 → SLC 22:44UA 5646 · flown by SkyWest 8h 48m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 24m San Francisco SFO 18:51 → SLC 22:03UA 5590 · flown by SkyWest 11h 23m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:21 → ATL 12:05DL 1324 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → SLC 17:18DL 526 8h 57m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:27 → ATL 10:18DL 3080 1h 38m Atlanta ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663 7h 23m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAD 12:37 → ATL 14:28DL 1444 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653 9h 25m 99% 89%
FrontierDetails → IAD 06:01 → LAS 08:15F9 4277 1h 53m Las Vegas LAS 10:08 → SLC 12:46F9 3016 8h 44m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:02 → ATL 16:53DL 2135 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 19:34 → SLC 21:37DL 660 8h 35m 98% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON