Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Sacramento on time.

Nonstops that day


UA 2435 United Flight history →	IAD 17:55	SMF 20:40	11%	3%	0.5%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAD 07:15 → SLC 09:54DL 432	1h 41m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	8h 01m	98%	90%
United Details →	IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865	3h 58m Denver	DEN 16:03 → SMF 17:40UA 1208	10h 27m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	IAD 07:26 → MSP 09:17DL 3996 · flown by SkyWest	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	7h 43m	94%	86%
Delta Details →	IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127	1h 33m Atlanta	ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904	8h 00m	96%	86%
United Details →	IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126	3h 08m Denver	DEN 19:37 → SMF 21:12UA 2132	9h 37m	100%	85%
United Details →	IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434	3h 21m San Francisco	SFO 18:48 → SMF 19:50UA 1862	10h 10m	99%	83%
American Details →	IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617	3h 34m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:09 → SMF 13:55AA 2078	10h 41m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	IAD 17:46 → ATL 19:54DL 1695	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SMF 22:53DL 682	8h 07m	90%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON