tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:00, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2319 United IAD 17:34 SNA 20:00 9% 4% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:40 → SFO 15:27UA 1434 3h 43m San Francisco SFO 19:10 → SNA 20:55UA 589 11h 15m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:25 → SNA 13:59AA 2465 10h 45m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Detroit DTW 09:25 → SNA 11:05DL 1857 8h 05m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 41m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 9h 05m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAD 12:48 → DEN 14:42UA 1587 3h 10m Denver DEN 17:52 → SNA 19:34UA 1291 9h 46m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 20m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 7h 44m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 3h 07m San Francisco SFO 12:19 → SNA 14:23UA 2441 10h 53m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → ATL 07:43DL 2127 3h 17m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 84%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON