Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tue, Oct 6 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 8–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 683 IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 1140 IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 6% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 683 United Flight history →	IAD 09:00	TPA 11:32	8%	3%	0.8%	91%
UA 2277 United Flight history →	IAD 12:59	TPA 15:25	10%	3%	0.9%	86%
DL 2234 Delta	IAD 20:47	TPA 23:12	10%	5%	1.3%	no record
UA 1140 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	TPA 20:39	15%	4%	1.2%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON