Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YV 4070 IAD 13:05 → TYS 15:02 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4257 IAD 08:55 → TYS 10:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YV 4070 Mesa	IAD 13:05	TYS 15:02	6%	3%	0.8%	no record
UA 4304 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 22:15	TYS 23:37	9%	2%	0.8%	76%
UA 4914 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 18:31	TYS 20:06	11%	3%	0.8%	75%
UA 4257 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAD 08:55	TYS 10:33	11%	2%	0.8%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON