tailodds FORECAST
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Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tue, Oct 6: one nonstop, UA 5814 at 09:50, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5814 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → IAH 09:50 ASE 11:40 14% 5% 0.7% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 3h 42m Denver DEN 20:25 → ASE 21:26UA 5781 · flown by SkyWest 7h 26m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 58m Denver DEN 07:45 → ASE 08:46UA 5444 · flown by SkyWest 4h 31m 97% 90%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 1h 58m Los Angeles LAX 16:04 → ASE 19:13UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest 7h 40m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 3h 08m Denver DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 26m Denver DEN 11:18 → ASE 12:26UA 5769 · flown by SkyWest 6h 06m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:32 → DEN 11:08UA 1450 2h 32m Denver DEN 13:40 → ASE 14:44UA 5771 · flown by SkyWest 6h 12m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:50DL 1069 55m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → ASE 11:22DL 4011 · flown by SkyWest 6h 42m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 53m Chicago ORD 08:52 → ASE 11:01UA 5279 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 93% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON