Tuesday, October 6 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 8 nonstops are 7–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2376 IAH 07:31 → AUS 08:34 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1711 IAH 16:20 → AUS 17:27 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Tue, Oct 6

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2376 United	IAH 07:31	AUS 08:34	7%	2%	0.5%	no record
UA 1859 United Flight history →	IAH 12:05	AUS 13:12	11%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 1179 United Flight history →	IAH 22:15	AUS 23:12	12%	3%	0.6%	82%
UA 1823 United Flight history →	IAH 10:15	AUS 11:19	12%	3%	0.6%	79%
UA 2483 United Flight history →	IAH 14:22	AUS 15:27	14%	3%	0.6%	84%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	IAH 18:50	AUS 19:57	14%	4%	0.6%	57%
UA 2621 United Flight history →	IAH 20:18	AUS 21:25	14%	5%	0.6%	73%
UA 1711 United Flight history →	IAH 16:20	AUS 17:27	15%	4%	0.6%	70%
UA 6118 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:20	AUS 15:29	21%	10%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Tue, Oct 6 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON